An Overstressed Landscape
- henrybai091
- Apr 7, 2023
- 3 min read
Image Credit: Science.org
I recently came across a paper from Professor Francis Galgano, who studies environmental change and security at Villanova University. It brought to light a significant, but widely overlooked impact of climate change- the threat to national security. Here are some things I learned:
The promise of food and water security has always been a way powerful leaders establish their validity. Throughout the 1960s, rising elites in the middle east promised food and water security, as well as better living standards. With these goals prioritized, sustainable water use was tabled. Promises like these were common in countries around the world; but, with significant climate change impacts on the horizon, balance needed to be found, fast.
However, after decades of misuse and the impact of climate change, many water stressed nations have seen profound socioeconomic and environmental implications.
Image Credit: IMF.org
In its fourth assessment report, the IPCC analyzed the level of preparedness for climate impacts that many countries had. What they found was those developing countries, specifically in the Middle East, would be most vulnerable to environmental change because they are experiencing warming at a rate double the average and due to their existing water scarcity issues. Rising temperatures, coupled with the fragility associated with post-conflict transitions, created treacherous conditions for the already weakening government landscape. This mixed with rapidly depleting freshwater resources and declining output in food production systems has contributed to the proliferation of armed groups as countries engage in violent conflict over ever scarcer natural resources.
This cycle of environmental degradation leading to instability and conflict can be seen in this picture below:
Source: The Environmental Conflict Nexus
A significant affect of a depletion of water resources has been desertification, followed by the ensuing knock-on effects of mass migration and urbanization. One country that is facing ramifications like these is Syria:
In the Summer 2021, the Euphrates River that runs through the heart of Syria saw record low rainfall. This impacted the lifeline for the millions of pastoralists, farmers, and herders in the region- often the poorest of the poor. Faced with insufficient vegetation growth for their livestock and lack of help from government, many had to flee to other local communities and cities. The situation was worsened by the regional authority’s inadequacy of finances, capacity, and expertise to address the environmental challenges. Furthermore, even though it was and still is an international concern, foreign donors have been hesitant to provide monetary support due to the country’s lack of even a proposed solution.
Refuge camp near Syria border.
Image credit: latimes.com
This situation has happened before: during a five-year drought starting in 2006, millions of people were displaced into cities, putting increased pressures on inadequate water and sanitation systems. The overcrowded cities and significant environmental stresses added fuel to the fire first started by the hostile political landscape and culminated in the Arab Spring in 2010.
Most Middle East and North African countries have little to no plan to curb carbon emissions and fight climate change. So, now what?
For decades, the United States and other international partners have participated in the International Water Trade. No- it’s not exactly what it sounds like, countries aren’t sending bucket loads of water. They are shipping water-intensive crops, mainly maize, wheat, rice, and barley to water-stressed nations for free. This is much like buying a generator, when your house has no power, you have a temporary lifeline. In the middle east, billions of dollars of crops provide food when there is a drought and helping to limit a potential social upheaval.
Although this strategy has worked for years, it is still a short-term solution to a very long-term problem. To fundamentally fix the resource problem of the Middle East and North Africa, the water trade has to work in tandem with lower carbon emissions.
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