The Climate Domino Effect

henrybai091
Aug 23, 2021
3 min read

Source: Felipe Dana, AP

The ever more prominent effects of Climate Change are becoming clearer and more distraught, but what about the impacts of those effects? The interconnected nature of these impacts with geopolitical issues is often overlooked when analyzing the impacts of climate change.

The Middle Eastern Impact.

Scientists and analysts around the globe have come to a consensus that climate change will hit the middle east hardest, with summer temperatures expected to increase more than twice the global average. Along with that, ravaging heatwaves, desertification, and droughts could make parts of the Middle East and Northern Africa uninhabitable.

Source: Gianluca Serra.

It paints an awful painting that could fuel dangerous competition over vital and ever diminishing resources. As stated in an article by the Atlantic Council: “ They (International partners) should brace themselves for a Middle East in which warming intensifies unrest, weakens state capacity, and provokes resource conflicts.”

Climate-induced Civil War in Syria.

Following a devastating drought from 2006 to 2010, Syria has been propelled to what has been claimed to be a ‘living nightmare’ of a civil war. The drought was the worst multiyear drought in 900 years and it had profound effects on the rural regions. It would eventually spew into urban areas and cause massive civil unrest.

The destroyed Syrian town of Kobane. Source: Bulent Kilic.

It all begins when the first domino falls- it’s represented by the once-in-a-century drought, which pushes the next domino- which is crops become harder to grow. Then, the third domino falls- the substantial rise in food prices. This saga continues with the suffering of poor rural folk, unable to afford the expensive produce. Next, the fourth domino falls- the mass abandonment of rural lands and migration towards urban areas- such as Damascus. This series of events happen all around Syria, causing urban populations in the years following the drought rises by 50%.

In the now much more populated Syrian cities, dismissive propaganda is spread about rural farmers that lead to further hatred towards the government and adding fuel to the fiery pits of rebellion. Helped by climate-induced economic despair and other drivers, that pit would eventually grow to a crescendo that is the Syrian Civil War.

Understanding present-day climate challenges in Syria.

Many parts of the Syrian climate problem can be summed up in two words, those are ‘decreasing precipitation.’ The issues faced by Syrians at the beginning of this century- desertification and a depleting water supply are expected to continue through the middle of this century. Some experts even predict that the ancient Tigris and Euphrates rivers will “disappear this century.”

The Tigris and Euphrates Rivers on a map.

Another growing problem is making itself apparent near the Syrian capital, Damascus. The Figeh Spring, an important source of water for the country, has been suffering from a drop in precipitation. Between 1961 and 1990, precipitation dropped by 11% in the winter and 8% in the summer. This trend is believed to continue and in the following decades, the drop in precipitation could reach 22%.

Other regions of the country are also feeling the climate strains. With some areas experiencing a woeful 50% decline in precipitation, which would have evident effects on the agriculture industry, as well as triggering tragic droughts and further desertification of land.

Source: AP.

The climate situation in the Middle East is becoming more urgent by the day. The Middle Eastern countries, as well as international partners, must take proactive decisions in order to combat climate change. Because the world’s top grain importers are stationed in the Middle East, the profound and destructive impacts will not only impact that region but also the entire world.